Mixed results for One Nation and the Coalition in latest federal polls

Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

There have been mixed messages emerging from the three federal polls released this week. In the DemosAU poll, the Coalition was up four points on the primary vote to 25% and One Nation was down five points to 24%.

However, in the other two polls (YouGov and Morgan), One Nation was up two points and the Coalition down by one to 2.5 points, with One Nation’s primary vote lead over the Coalition increasing to 5–6 points.

Combined support for One Nation and the Coalition was 49% in DemosAU (down one since early July), 47% in YouGov (up one since early August) and 48% in Morgan (down 0.5 since the previous week).

A Tasmanian state poll suggests the Liberals and One Nation would probably win a combined majority of seats.

Federal YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll for News24 (formerly Sky News), conducted August 18–24 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (up one since the early August YouGov poll), One Nation 26% (up two), the Coalition 21% (down one), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 5% (steady) and others 7% (down two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 56–44. They led the Coalition by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -24, with 59% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. His net approval has dropped six points in YouGov since late July. After rising five points in the previous poll, Angus Taylor’s net approval slumped five points to an equal low of -16 (49% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied).

In head to head matchups, Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 44–37 (previously 42–38). He led Pauline Hanson by 52–37 (previously 51–38).

Combining Labor and the Greens against One Nation and the Coalition on the issues, the right led on cost of living by 42–33, on immigration by 51–30, on housing affordability by 39–34, on the economy by 45–32 and on security and defence by 45–30.

The left led on climate change by 45–27, on healthcare by 39–36 and on education by 40–36. On growing inequality, there was a 36–36 tie.

By 51–29, respondents supported One Nation’s proposal to ban foreign fighters and terrorist sympathisers who were originally from Australia from returning here.

Respondents were asked which of Albanese, Taylor or Hanson was most trustworthy, best to lead the country and most relatable. On trust, Albanese had 44%, Hanson 32% and Taylor 24%. On leading the country, Albanese had 46%, Hanson 28% and Taylor 26%. But on relatability, Hanson led Albanese by 42–41, with 17% for Taylor.

DemosAU poll

A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted August 18–20 from a sample of 1,562, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (steady since the early July DemosAU poll), the Coalition 25% (up four), One Nation 24% (down five), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 13% (up three).

No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections gave Labor 61–73 of the 150 House of Representatives seats (60–72 in the May to July DemosAU MRP poll), the Coalition 32–50 (11–22 previously), One Nation 26–39 (53–66), the Greens 0–5 (1–5) and all Others 5–10 (3–7). These projections were obtained by applying uniform swing to the previous MRP poll.

Albanese’s net positive score was up four points to -19 (47% negative, 28% positive). Taylor’s was down one point to -4 (27% negative, 23% positive). Hanson’s was down eight points to -17 (47% negative, 30% positive).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 35% (steady), Taylor 23% (up one) and Hanson 22% (down four). In head to head matchups, Albanese led Taylor by 38–36 after a 38–38 tie previously. His lead over Hanson increased to 43–32 from 42–37.

Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll, conducted August 17–23 from a sample of 1,508, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down 1.5 points since the August 10–16 Morgan poll), One Nation 27% (up two), the Coalition 21% (down 2.5), the Greens 14% (up 1.5) and all Others 11% (up 0.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53–47 and the Coalition by an unchanged 52–48. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a one-point gain for Labor.

Tasmanian state and federal poll

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted August 17–18 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 26% of the vote (up one since the May EMRS poll), Labor 23% (down one), One Nation 21% (up two), the Greens 16% (up two), independents 14% (down two) and others 1% (steady).

Tasmania uses a proportional system for lower house elections, so a two-party estimate isn’t applicable. The Liberals and One Nation would be likely to win a combined majority on these figures.

All three Tasmanian leaders’ net favourability slumped, with Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s down 11 points to -7, Labor leader Josh Willie’s down ten points to -14 and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff’s down 11 points to -16. Despite the Liberals gaining on voting intentions, Rockliff’s lead as preferred premier over Willie was slashed to 37–30 (44–25 previously).

In the federal Tasmanian poll, Labor had 29% (down one since the February federal EMRS poll), One Nation 26% (up two), the Liberals 17% (down two from the combined Liberal and National figure in February), the Greens 15% (up two), independents 13% (up one) and others 1% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 63–37, a three-point gain for Labor. They led the Liberals by 57–43, a three-point gain for the Liberrals. Liberal preferences favoured One Nation by just 53–47 over Labor, while One Nation preferences favoured the Liberals by 81–19.

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 48%, Taylor 21% and Hanson 19%.

New Zealand election article

The New Zealand election will be held on November 7. I’ve looked at the polls for the NZ version of The Conversation. Overall, right-wing parties lead left-wing parties, but the right could be denied an overall majority of seats if the Opportunity Party wins at least 5% of the vote.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.